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"Buffalo
Bob" |
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An interesting talk by the Head of
Daimler Benz. A bit mind-blowing to say the least! He
predicted an interesting concept of what could lay ahead. In
a recent interview, the Head of Daimler Benz (Mercedes Benz) said its
competitors are no longer other car companies, but Tesla (obviously),
and now, Google, Apple, Amazon et al. Software
will disrupt most traditional industries in the next 5-10 years. Uber
is just a software tool, they don't own any cars, and are now the
biggest taxi company in the world. Airbnb
is now the biggest hotel company in the world, although it does not
own any properties. Artificial
Intelligence: Computers
become exponentially better in understanding the world. This
year, a computer beat the best Go player in the world, 10 years earlier
than expected. In
the U.S., young lawyers already can't get jobs. Because
of IBM Watson, you can get legal advice (so far for more-or-less basic
stuff) within seconds, with 90% accuracy compared with 70% accuracy when
done by humans. So,
if you study law, stop immediately. There
will be 90% fewer lawyers in the future; only specialists will remain. Watson
already helps nurses diagnosing cancer, four times more accurate than
human nurses. Facebook
now has a pattern recognition software that can recognize faces better
than humans. By
2030, computers will become more intelligent than humans. Autonomous
cars: In
2018 the first self-driving cars will appear for the public. Around
2020, the complete industry will start to be disrupted. You
don't want to own a car anymore. You
will call a car with your phone, it will show up at your location and
drive you to your destination. You
will not need to park it, you only pay for the driven distance and you
can be productive while driving. Our kids will never get a driver's license and
will never own a car. It
will change the cities, because we will need 90-95% fewer cars for that. We
can transform former parking spaces into parks. 1.2
million people die each year in car accidents worldwide. We
now have one accident every 60,000 miles (100,000 km), with autonomous
driving that will drop to one accident in 6 million miles (10 million
km). That will save a million lives each year. Most
car companies will probably go bankrupt. Traditional
car companies will try the traditional approach and try to build a
better car, while tech companies (Tesla, Apple, Google) will take the
revolutionary approach and build a computer on wheels. Many
engineers from Volkswagen and Audi are completely terrified of Tesla. Auto
Insurance companies will have massive trouble because without accidents,
car insurance will become much cheaper. The
car insurance business model will slowly disappear. Real
estate will change. Because if you can work while you commute,
people will move farther away to live in a more beautiful neighborhood. Electric
cars will become mainstream about 2020. Cities
will be less noisy because all new cars will run on electricity. Electricity
will become incredibly cheap and clean: solar
production has been on an exponential curve for 30 years, and now you
can now see the burgeoning impact. Last
year, more solar energy was installed worldwide than fossil. Energy
companies are desperately trying to limit access to the grid to prevent
competition from home solar installations, but that can't last.
Technology will take care of that strategy. With
cheap electricity comes cheap and abundant water. Desalination
of salt water now only needs 2kwh per cubic meter (@ 0.25 cents). We
don't have scarce water in most places, we only have scarce drinking
water. Imagine
what will be possible if anyone can have as much clean water as he
wants, for nearly no cost. Health
innovations: The
Tricorder X price will be announced this year. There
are companies who will build a medical device (called the "Tricorder"
from Star Trek) that works with your phone, which takes your retina
scan, your blood sample, and you can breathe into it. It
then analyzes 54 biomarkers that will identify nearly any disease. It
will be cheap, so in a few years everyone on this planet will have
access to world-class medical analysis, almost for free. Goodbye,
medical establishment. 3D
printing: The
price of the cheapest 3D printer came down from $18,000 to $400 within
10 years. In
the same time, it became 100 times faster. All
major shoe companies have already started 3D printing shoes. Some
common spare airplane parts are already 3D printed in remote airports. The
space station now has a printer that eliminates the need for the large
amount of spare parts they used to keep in the past. At
the end of this year, new smart phones will have 3D scanning
possibilities. You
can then 3D scan your feet and print your perfect shoes at home. In
China, they already 3D printed and built a complete 6-story office
building. By
2027, 10% of everything that's being produced will be 3D printed. Business
opportunities: If you think of a niche you want to go in, ask
yourself: "In
the future, do you think we will have that?" If the answer is yes,
how can you make that happen sooner? If
it doesn't work with your phone, forget the idea. And
any idea designed for success in the 20th century is doomed to failure
in the 21st century. Work: 70-80%
of jobs will disappear in the next 20 years. There
will be a lot of new jobs, but it is not clear if there will be enough
new jobs in such a small time. Agriculture: There
will be a $100 agricultural robot in the future. Farmers in third-world
countries can then become managers of their field instead of working all
day on their fields. Aeroponics
will need much less water. The
first Petri dish that produced veal is now available and will be cheaper
than cow-produced veal in 2018. Right now, 30% of all agricultural surfaces is
used for cows. Imagine if we don't need that space anymore. There
are several startups that will bring insect protein to the market
shortly. It
contains more protein than meat. It
will be labeled as "alternative protein source" (because most
people still reject the idea of eating insects). There
is an app called "moodies" that can already tell in which mood
you're in. By
2020 there will be apps that can tell by your facial expressions, if you
are lying. Imagine
a political debate where it's being displayed when the truth is being
told. Bitcoin
may even become the default reserve currency ... Of the world! Longevity: Right
now, the average life span increases by 3 months per year. Four
years ago, the life span used to be 79 years, now it's 80. The
increase itself is increasing and by 2036, there will be more than one
year increase per year. So, we all might live for a long time, probably
way more than 100. Education: The
cheapest smart phones are already at $10 in Africa and Asia. By
2020, 70% of all humans will own a smart phone. That
means, everyone has the same access to world-class education. Every
child can use Khan academy for everything a child needs to learn at
school in First World countries. There have already been releases of
software in Indonesia and soon there will be releases in Arabic,
Swahili, and Chinese this summer. I
can see enormous potential if we give the English app for free, so that
children in Africa and everywhere else can become fluent in English.
And that could happen within half a year. Are
we ready for all this?!?
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